US intelligence estimates Iran maintains significant missile arsenal despite previous military strikes

United States intelligence estimates indicate that Iran maintains a significant missile arsenal despite previous military strikes. The assessment suggests Iran possesses between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles, although intelligence officials characterize the finding as low confidence due to difficulties in tracking stored or ready-to-launch munitions.

Current missile production and stockpiles

Iran is rebuilding its arsenal at a slower pace than before the war. This reconstruction primarily utilizes pre-existing stockpiled components. Bloomberg reports that Iran is capable of producing approximately 50 ballistic missiles per month, which represents roughly half of its pre-war production capacity. This production rate follows a period in which Iran reportedly rebuilt its entire missile arsenal between June 12, 2025, and the start of current hostilities in February 2026.

Estimates regarding the total size of the Iranian arsenal vary between nations. While US intelligence identifies a range of 1,500 to 2,500 missiles, Israeli military estimates suggest Iran possesses more than 1,500 ballistic missiles. Prior to the war, the Iranian missile arsenal was estimated at approximately 2,500 missiles. Satellite imagery has shown that Iran is reopening certain underground missile sites by digging through debris that blocked entrances during previous strikes.

Military deployment and interception costs

The scale of recent hostilities is reflected in the volume of munitions launched by Iran. Since February 28, Iran has launched over 2,200 ballistic missiles and over 4,900 Shahed-type drones. Defending against these munitions has required a significant expenditure of advanced defense systems. At least 1,000 US Patriot PAC-3 interceptors have been expended during these operations. Each individual Patriot PAC-3 interceptor costs approximately $4 million.

The use of these interceptors highlights the logistical pressure on defense inventories. For context, the maximum annual production of Patriot PAC-3 interceptors is 650 units. The expenditure of 1,000 units exceeds the total annual production capacity of the system.

Diplomatic and political developments

The conflict has involved various international figures and diplomatic efforts. Hossein Taeb, the Chairman of the Iranian People's Mobilization Organization, claimed that Donald Trump requested Vladimir Putin to mediate negotiations with Iran. Meanwhile, US Vice President Jedi Vance has been involved in attempts to reach an agreement with Mohsen Rezaee during the current conflict pause.

Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs in the first Trump administration, Simon Ledeen, provided context on the replenishment of Iranian munitions. Simon Ledeen stated that the minimum estimate suggests Iran has replaced more than half of its missile stockpile before the war.

Glossary

• Shahed-type drones — Shahed-type drones are kamikaze drones. The Geran-2 is the Russian version of the Iranian Shahed-type kamikaze drone.
• ballistic missiles — Ballistic missiles are munitions launched by Iran. They are part of a significant missile arsenal used in military operations.