President Trump may refrain from military strikes against Iran if no new provocations occur

President Donald Trump has indicated to national security advisors that he may refrain from conducting military strikes against Iran, provided that no new provocations occur from Tehran or the Houthis in Yemen. This potential shift in policy follows a period of intense regional tension and high-level diplomatic engagement. President Trump held a conversation with sports broadcaster Stephen A. Smith on Thursday, November 12, 2026, regarding the potential to end the conflict.

The President has been engaged in significant diplomatic outreach over the past two weeks. President Trump held phone calls with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The Turkish Presidency confirmed that President Trump held three calls with President Erdoğan since October 28, 2026. While President Trump told Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on October 31, 2026, that he planned to launch an attack after the elections, the current stance suggests a more measured approach. President Trump stated that he can end the matter immediately, but is proceeding more slowly and civilly at the request of allies he seeks to protect.

Diplomatic and Economic Context

The current geopolitical landscape is shaped by significant economic and political factors. U.S. intelligence assessments conclude that the Iranian economy has been damaged by the U.S. naval blockade and economic sanctions. Following these findings, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated to the Federalist Society that further military operations against Iran are unnecessary due to the economic hardship caused by U.S. sanctions. President Trump has noted that he is proceeding slowly to protect allies.

Domestic political shifts in the United States are also influencing the trajectory of the conflict. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted before the November 3, 2026, elections found that 55% of Americans believe the war was not worth the cost. This sentiment follows a midterm election in early November 2026 where the Democratic Party gained control of Congress. Vice President J.D. Vance stated that the war was the reason for the Republican loss of Congress. The conflict, which began in February 2026, has also contributed to a rise in global fuel prices.

Regional Security and Intelligence

Regional actors continue to monitor the situation closely. Israeli media reports suggest estimates indicate war with Iran will not break out in the coming weeks. However, the Israeli Chief of Staff supports a military operation against Iran if conducted at the appropriate time and manner. Meanwhile, the head of Mossad is expected to present intelligence to the U.S. administration regarding Iran's nuclear project and long-range missile development during a visit to Washington.

Turkish officials have also weighed in on the regional stability. A Turkish official statement on November 7, 2026, emphasized the need to end tensions between Iran and the United States. While the extent to which President Trump has made a final decision regarding the cessation of military strikes remains uncertain, the focus appears to be shifting toward economic pressure and diplomatic dialogue.

Glossary

• Houthis — Ansar Allah, known popularly as the Houthis, is a Zaydi group with origins in the mountainous Sa'dah Governorate on Yemen's northern border with Saudi Arabia.
• Saudi Crown Prince — The Saudi Crown Prince is a high-ranking official in Saudi Arabia. Mohammed bin Salman is identified as the Saudi Crown Prince.
• Federalist Society — The Federalist Society is an organization mentioned in relation to statements made by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• U.S. naval blockade — The U.S. naval blockade is a military action that has contributed to damage in the Iranian economy.
• economic sanctions — Economic sanctions are measures that have caused economic hardship in Iran. They are used as a form of economic pressure.